Australian Open 2026: Aryna Sabalenka contemplates another major final loss as Elena Rybakina triumphs in Melbourne

MELBOURNE – For the second time in three major finals, world number one Aryna Sabalenka found herself on the precipice of victory, only to be consumed by the very demons that have haunted her career at its highest altitudes. In a dramatic and fluctuating Australian Open women's final, Kazakhstan's Elena Rybakina weathered an early storm in the deciding set to capture her second Grand Slam title, leaving a despondent Sabalenka to ponder how a commanding lead once again slipped through her fingers.

Rybakina’s 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory under the lights of Rod Laver Arena was a testament to her profound composure and mental fortitude. For Sabalenka, it was a painfully familiar story of dominance undone by doubt, reigniting questions about the 27-year-old’s ability to conquer the psychological pressures of a major championship match.

A Final of High Drama and a Familiar Collapse

The match was a compelling showcase of modern power tennis, with both women trading ferocious groundstrokes from the baseline. After splitting the first two sets, Sabalenka appeared to have seized complete control. She raced to a 3-0 lead in the final set, her signature power game firing on all cylinders as Rybakina struggled to find her rhythm.

At that moment, the Belarusian seemed destined to claim her third Grand Slam trophy and solidify her status as the undisputed queen of the sport. But as the finish line came into view, the complexion of the match shifted dramatically. A string of unforced errors, including two crucial double faults, allowed Rybakina back into the contest.

The Kazakhstani, sensing a crack in her opponent's armour, held her nerve impeccably. She broke back, levelled the set, and then steamrolled a visibly rattled Sabalenka, winning six of the final seven games to seal a remarkable comeback victory.

The Turning Point

Former British number one Annabel Croft, commentating for BBC Radio 5 Live, pinpointed the moment the Belarusian's composure unravelled.

"I felt that Sabalenka really beat herself up in that final set," Croft observed. "She had it. She was playing magnificent tennis to get to 3-0, but you could see the tension return to her shoulders. The minute panic set in she just steamrolled in the wrong direction."

The Paradox of a Dominant Champion

Sabalenka’s defeat is all the more confounding given her sustained excellence on the WTA Tour. Her record over the past two seasons paints a picture of a player in a class of her own, yet her Grand Slam final performances tell a different tale.

• Tour Dominance: Sabalenka has been the pre-eminent force in women's tennis, amassing nine WTA titles since the start of the 2024 season. Her consistent, high-level performances have created a clear and substantial gap at the top of the world rankings, where she has resided for 78 consecutive weeks.

• Major Final Record: Despite her week-in, week-out success, her record in Grand Slam finals is now a concerning two wins from five appearances. This defeat in Melbourne follows a similar collapse at the 2025 US Open, where she also surrendered a significant lead in the final set.

• The Pattern: A recurring theme in her major final losses is a significant lead surrendered at a critical juncture. The shift is often marked by a sudden increase in unforced errors and a visible decline in body language, suggesting a mental, rather than physical, breakdown.

Rybakina’s Resurgence and Steel

While Sabalenka's collapse will dominate headlines, it should not overshadow the brilliance of Elena Rybakina's performance. The 2022 Wimbledon champion has re-established herself as one of the game's premier big-match players with a run in Melbourne defined by poise and precision.

Her calm demeanour stood in stark contrast to Sabalenka’s emotional volatility, proving to be her greatest weapon in the final's decisive moments.

• Champion's Composure: Rybakina’s greatest asset throughout the final fortnight was her unflappable temperament. Even when facing a 0-3 deficit in the decider, she never appeared panicked, instead trusting her formidable serve and clean ball-striking to claw her way back.

• Path to Victory: The 26-year-old's run to the title was formidable. She defeated three top-10 opponents, including a straight-sets masterclass against world number three Coco Gauff in the semi-finals, demonstrating a return to the peak form that saw her triumph at the All England Club.

• Key Statistics: Rybakina served 15 aces in the final and maintained a first-serve percentage of 68% under pressure in the final set. Critically, she converted all three of her break point opportunities in the decider, showcasing a clinical edge her opponent lacked.

What Comes Next?

This result sends ripples through the WTA Tour, challenging the established hierarchy and setting the stage for a compelling season.

For Sabalenka: A Season at a Crossroads

The world number one faces a period of intense soul-searching. Her technical and physical prowess is undeniable, but this latest defeat proves her biggest opponent remains the one in the mirror. Her team will undoubtedly focus on sports psychology as they prepare for the clay and grass court seasons. The question for the remainder of 2026 is whether she can conquer this mental block to cement her legacy as an all-time great, or if she will be remembered as a dominant number one who faltered on the grandest stage.

For Rybakina: A New Era?

With a second major title on a different surface, Rybakina confirms her status as a versatile and elite champion. She moves to a career-high ranking of world number two and enters the conversation as a consistent threat at every Grand Slam. Her calm, powerful game is a perfect foil for the tour's more emotional players, and she has now proven twice that she possesses the mental steel to win when it matters most.

For the WTA Tour: A Rivalry Reignited

The final has reignited a fascinating rivalry between two players with contrasting styles and temperaments. Sabalenka’s quest for redemption and Rybakina’s quiet ascent promise to deliver a compelling narrative for the rest of the season. After a period of clear dominance by one player, the women's game now has a certified top-tier rivalry that could define the sport for years to come.