Iran's Supreme Leader Warns Any US Attack Would Spark 'Regional War'

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued his most direct threat to date on Sunday, warning that any U.S. military strike against the Islamic Republic would ignite a "regional war." The stark declaration dramatically raises the stakes in a deepening crisis that has rattled global energy markets and put the Middle East on a knife's edge.

The warning comes as a U.S. carrier strike group, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, patrols the Arabian Sea, deployed by Washington in response to Tehran's violent crackdown on widespread anti-government protests. With both sides taking increasingly hardline positions, the risk of a miscalculation that could spiral into a major conflict impacting the global economy has reached a critical point.

Why It Matters: The Economic Stakes

The escalating rhetoric directly threatens the world's most critical oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's planned live-fire military drills in this strategic waterway on Sunday and Monday serve as a pointed reminder of its ability to disrupt global commerce.

• Global Oil Chokepoint: The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, is the transit route for approximately one-fifth of all oil traded worldwide. Any disruption, real or threatened, can send crude oil prices soaring.
• Market Volatility: The mere threat of conflict introduces significant volatility into energy and financial markets. Traders are pricing in a "risk premium" on oil, anticipating potential supply shocks that would drive up costs for businesses and consumers globally.
• Insurance and Shipping Costs: Instability in the Persian Gulf leads to skyrocketing insurance premiums for oil tankers and cargo ships, costs that are ultimately passed down the supply chain. In a full-blown conflict, many shipping companies would cease operations in the region altogether.

The Big Picture: A Cycle of Escalation

Tensions have been building for weeks, following the eruption of nationwide protests in Iran. The demonstrations, which began over the collapse of the national currency, the rial, quickly evolved into the most significant challenge to the clerical establishment in years.

Tehran's response was swift and brutal, leading to a crackdown that has reportedly seen tens of thousands detained. The White House cited this crackdown as the primary justification for dispatching the naval fleet, establishing a new and dangerous flashpoint in the long-simmering U.S.-Iran conflict.

Khamenei's Hardline Stance

In his remarks, the 86-year-old Supreme Leader left no room for de-escalation, framing the internal dissent as a foreign-backed plot and promising a devastating response to any American aggression.

• On External Threats: "The Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war," Khamenei was quoted as saying by Iranian state television. He added, "The Iranian nation will deliver a firm blow to anyone who attacks or harasses it."
• On Internal Protests: Khamenei also re-categorized the domestic unrest, moving from initially acknowledging economic grievances to labeling the movement a coup attempt. "The recent sedition was similar to a coup. Of course, the coup was suppressed," he stated. "Their goal was to destroy sensitive and effective centers involved in running the country."

This "coup" narrative is particularly ominous for the thousands of detained protesters. Sedition is a charge that can carry the death penalty in Iran, raising fears of mass executions—a scenario President Trump has identified as a potential "red line."

Widening Diplomatic Rift

The crisis has also poisoned Iran's relations with Europe. In a retaliatory move, Iran's parliament declared it now considers all European Union militaries to be terrorist organizations.

The move, announced by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, came after the EU designated Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terror group for its central role in suppressing the protests. Qalibaf, a former IRGC commander, led the session where lawmakers, dressed in Guard uniforms, chanted "Death to America!" and "Death to Israel!"

This tit-for-tat designation isolates Tehran further, complicating diplomatic off-ramps and jeopardizing economic ties with a bloc that had sought to preserve the now-defunct nuclear deal.

The View from Washington

President Trump's administration continues to project a policy of strategic ambiguity, combining threats of force with offers of negotiation.

• Red Lines: The President has publicly stated two primary triggers for potential U.S. military action: the killing of peaceful protesters and the mass execution of detainees.
• Nuclear Concerns: Trump has also increasingly linked the current crisis to Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites during a brief war with Iran, fought alongside Israel in June. Recent satellite imagery suggests activity at two of those sites, possibly in an attempt to conceal salvage efforts.
• Mixed Signals: While dispatching warships, Trump has also repeatedly claimed Iran is "seriously talking" to the U.S. and wants to negotiate. Speaking to reporters Saturday, he remained non-committal on whether he had decided on a course of action, leaving observers uncertain if the White House is preparing for war or leveraging military pressure for a diplomatic breakthrough.

What to Watch Next

The immediate focus is on Iran's military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command has issued a clear warning against any actions that threaten American naval assets or disrupt commercial shipping. Any incident during these drills could serve as the spark for a wider confrontation.

Ultimately, the world is watching for President Trump's next move. His decision will determine whether the U.S. steps back from the brink, allowing a fragile and uncertain status quo to hold, or commits to a military intervention that, as Iran's leader warns, could engulf the entire Middle East in war and send shockwaves through the global economy.