Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures sag ahead of week defined by Trump's Fed pick, jobs data

NEW YORK – Wall Street is bracing for a pivotal week as a confluence of market-moving catalysts—a surprise nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, a crucial report on the U.S. labor market, and a deluge of Big Tech earnings—threatens to inject significant volatility into a market already showing signs of fatigue.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open to start the new trading month, extending a risk-off sentiment that dragged down equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies at the end of last week.

The Big Picture

The cautious tone in overnight trading signals investor anxiety heading into a week that could define the market's trajectory for the first quarter of 2026. After a powerful, tech-led rally to start the year, cracks began to appear last week. The new month begins with market participants questioning the durability of that rally and seeking clarity on the two forces that matter most: monetary policy and economic growth.

The Nasdaq, home to the high-flying tech stocks that have dominated market action, is signaling the weakest start, with futures down half a percent. This follows a broader sell-off on Friday and highlights growing uncertainty around the market’s most crowded trades.

Driving the News: A New Fed Era Dawns

The primary driver of the market's newfound uncertainty is President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. The move, announced Friday, sent immediate ripples through interest rate markets and ended weeks of speculation.

Warsh, a former Fed governor and distinguished visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, is widely viewed by economists as holding a more hawkish stance on monetary policy than his predecessors. His past commentary suggests a preference for higher interest rates to combat inflation and a skepticism of the Fed's prolonged quantitative easing programs.

This has injected significant uncertainty into policy expectations. While most traders had been pricing in a steady-handed Fed, the market is now grappling with the prospect of a more aggressive central bank.

• The Warsh Effect: The nomination has created a complex dynamic. While a hawkish chair would typically lead markets to price in rate hikes, fed funds futures are paradoxically still pricing in two rate cuts by the end of 2026. Some analysts suggest this reflects a bet that a hawkish policy shift could inadvertently slow the economy too quickly, forcing a policy reversal later in the year. This divergence underscores the deep uncertainty now facing investors.

Between the Tickers: A Volatile Cross-Asset Picture

The nervous sentiment is not confined to equities. Volatility has spiked across other major asset classes, indicating a broad-based reassessment of risk among investors.

• Equity Futures: As of late Sunday, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) were down 0.2%. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) were 0.3% lower, and contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) shed 0.5%.

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the leading digital asset, extended its recent slide, falling below the key $80,000 level for the first time since April. The move signals waning speculative appetite and profit-taking after a strong run.

• Commodities: Precious metals, the stars of 2026's early rally, are experiencing a rollercoaster. Silver (SI=F), after suffering its largest single-day percentage drop on record last week (a fall of roughly 30%), saw a modest rebound late Sunday. Gold (GC=F) also ticked higher after its own significant pullback, highlighting the intense churn in assets viewed as safe havens.

Spotlight on Earnings: A Test for Tech Titans

This week will serve as a critical test for the Big Tech sector, which has been the primary engine of the market's advance this year. An insatiable appetite for growth has pushed valuations to lofty levels, setting a high bar for performance.

More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report quarterly results, but all eyes will be on the mega-cap technology and AI-related names. Any sign of slowing growth or cautious guidance could have an outsized impact on the broader market.

• Earnings on Deck: Key reports include Amazon (AMZN), where investors will scrutinize AWS cloud growth; Alphabet (GOOG), with a focus on advertising revenue and AI spending; Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), for insights into the chip cycle and its competition with Nvidia (NVDA); Disney (DIS), which will be judged on its streaming progress and parks revenue; and Palantir (PLTR), for an update on its AI platform demand.

The Main Event: January Jobs Report

Overshadowing even the earnings deluge is the week's main economic event: the January employment report, due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This data will provide the first comprehensive look at the health of the labor market in 2026 and will be a critical input for the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.

Economists are forecasting a notable slowdown in hiring. The consensus estimate is for the creation of just 65,000 nonfarm payrolls, a sharp deceleration from prior months. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at a historically elevated 4.4%.

• Why It's Crucial: A weak jobs number would confirm fears of a slowing economy, potentially validating the market's bet on future rate cuts. However, it would also complicate the narrative for corporate earnings growth. A surprisingly strong number could force the market to rethink its rate cut expectations, especially with a potentially hawkish Fed chair waiting in the wings.

The Bottom Line

Investors are navigating a market at a clear inflection point. The week ahead is packed with catalysts that will provide crucial answers on the path of monetary policy, the strength of the U.S. economy, and the sustainability of the earnings growth that has underpinned the 2026 stock rally. Expect heightened volatility as the market digests this wave of information and charts its course for the month ahead.