Transfer deadline day 2026: How does January transfer window compare and what deals could still be done?

By a Senior Financial Correspondent, BBC News

As the clock ticks down towards the 19:00 GMT deadline, the January 2026 transfer window is shaping up to be a story of calculated restraint for some and aggressive reinforcement for others. While total Premier League expenditure currently stands at a relatively modest £325m, the final hours could yet see a flurry of activity pushing the figure closer to last year's £421m total, defining the financial landscape of English football for the remainder of the season.

This winter's market has been characterized by a significant spending divide. Of the league's traditional 'big six', only Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have made significant capital outlays for immediate first-team additions. This contrasts sharply with a prevailing trend of fiscal caution from their rivals, who appear to be shifting their strategic focus entirely to the summer transfer period.

The State of Play: A Mid-Range Window

With hours left to go, the current spending total marks a notable decrease from the January windows of the recent past. However, history shows that deadline day itself can account for a substantial portion of the month's total business, suggesting the final tally remains very much in flux.

The headline deal of the window is Antoine Semenyo's £63m transfer from Bournemouth to Manchester City, an acquisition that underscores the champions' willingness to invest heavily to maintain their competitive edge.

The Big Spenders: City's Continued Dominance

Manchester City have once again established themselves as the Premier League's primary January investors. Their activity this month continues a pattern of significant mid-season spending.

• Manchester City: The champions have committed a total of £84m to secure the services of forward Antoine Semenyo (£63m) from Bournemouth and defender Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace. This makes them the biggest spenders for the second consecutive January, following a £188m outlay 12 months ago. Their total expenditure over the last 12-month cycle is now approaching an eye-watering £450m.

• Tottenham and West Ham: Following City, Tottenham have strategically invested £47.8m in reinforcing their squad. Meanwhile, West Ham United have spent a near-identical £47m, but with a more urgent objective. Their acquisition of two new centre-forwards is a clear statement of intent as they battle to secure their Premier League status.

The Quiet Giants: A Strategic Shift to Summer

A defining narrative of this window has been the inactivity of several of the league's financial heavyweights. Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea have all refrained from making new signings for their current squads, reflecting a broader strategic pivot.

This move towards summer-only business is not a one-off. For Arsenal and Liverpool, it marks the third consecutive season without a single winter signing. This suggests a long-term policy of avoiding the inflated prices and limited availability that often characterize the January market.

A Closer Look at Club Inactivity

• Arsenal & Liverpool: Both clubs have now gone three full years without adding a player in the winter window. Liverpool have, however, demonstrated their forward planning by finalising a £60m deal for French defender Jeremy Jacquet, who will officially join the club in the summer. This separates the act of spending from the timing of a player's arrival.

• Manchester United: The club's recent January business has been exceptionally sparse. Over the last three winter windows, their sole piece of business was the £27m signing of Patrick Dorgu in 2025, indicating a clear preference for major rebuilding during the off-season.

• Chelsea: After a period of record-breaking expenditure, Chelsea have also adopted a more measured approach. Their only recent January signing was Mathis Amougou for £13.5m in 2025, signalling a transition towards relying on the more stable and predictable summer window for major transactions.

Context: Why the Cautious Approach?

The moderated spending from a significant portion of the league can be attributed to several key factors, chief among them being the increased scrutiny around the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

Clubs are now operating with a heightened awareness of their financial balance sheets over a three-year cycle. The risk of points deductions for breaching spending limits has instilled a new level of fiscal prudence, discouraging the kind of speculative, high-cost deals that defined previous January windows.

Furthermore, many clubs now view the winter window as a market for emergency loans or opportunistic deals, rather than a time for foundational squad-building. The primary talent pool is deeper and more accessible in the summer, when players' contracts are more likely to be nearing their end and selling clubs are more willing to negotiate.

What to Watch For Before the Deadline

While many chequebooks appear to be closed, the final hours of deadline day are notoriously unpredictable. Several scenarios could still play out before 19:00 GMT.

• The Domino Effect: A single, unexpected major transfer can often trigger a chain reaction, as selling clubs rush to find replacements. A late, high-value bid for a key player could ignite activity across the league.

• The Relegation Scramble: Clubs near the bottom of the table, like West Ham, may feel compelled to make last-minute deals to bolster their survival hopes. These can often be premium-priced moves born of necessity.

• Loan Market: Expect a flurry of loan deals. For clubs constrained by PSR or those simply seeking short-term cover for injuries, the loan market offers a low-risk, low-cost solution that is a hallmark of deadline day.

The decisions made—and not made—in these final hours will have lasting consequences. The injection of new talent could prove decisive in the title race, the chase for European places, and the fight for survival at the bottom of the table. As the deadline approaches, the market's quiet composure will be tested one last time.