Trump approval is low, a new poll shows. Here's who's pulling away

WASHINGTON – President Trump's approval ratings remain mired in historically low territory, with new data revealing significant erosion among the very voter blocs that propelled him to the White House. This weakening support poses a formidable challenge to his administration's legislative agenda and creates a climate of uncertainty for markets and businesses navigating his disruptive policy-making.

The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, a closely watched barometer of public sentiment, paints a picture of a deeply polarized electorate and a president struggling to broaden his appeal beyond a fiercely loyal base. The findings suggest that political capital, a crucial currency for any White House, is in short supply.

The Numbers at a Glance

The poll's top-line figures underscore the persistent headwinds facing the administration. While presidents often see their approval ratings fluctuate, President Trump's have remained unusually static and underwater for the majority of his term.

• Overall Approval: President Trump's job approval stands at 39%, with a clear majority of 53% disapproving of his performance. This negative spread has been a consistent feature of his presidency.

• Strong Disapproval: A key indicator of voter intensity, 44% of respondents state they "strongly disapprove" of the president's performance. This figure, significantly higher than the 25% who "strongly approve," often foreshadows higher electoral turnout for the opposition party.

Who's Pulling Away: A Demographic Breakdown

The most telling data lies in the demographic details, which show a fraying of the coalition that secured Trump’s 2016 victory. While his base remains solid, key swing groups are showing clear signs of fatigue and disapproval.

• Independents: This crucial swing group, which often decides national elections, has soured on the president. Only 35% of independents approve of his performance, a drop of 8 points since the beginning of the year. A majority (54%) now disapprove.

• Suburban Women: A demographic critical in battleground states, approval among suburban women has fallen to just 30%. This group expresses particular concern over the president's rhetoric and the administration's policies on healthcare and education.

• White Voters Without a College Degree: While still a core component of his base, support is softening. Approval in this group, which he won decisively, has slipped from over 60% in post-election polling to 54% today. Any further erosion here could be politically perilous for the president.

• The Republican Base: In stark contrast, the president's support among self-identified Republicans remains exceptionally robust at 85%. This demonstrates a durable and loyal base that provides a high floor for his approval ratings and insulates him from intra-party challenges.

Policy Headwinds

The poll indicates that the president's signature policies are failing to win over a majority of the American public, contributing to his overall low standing. This lack of broad support complicates future legislative efforts.

• Trade and Tariffs: The administration's aggressive trade tactics remain a major point of division. The poll indicates that 48% of Americans believe the use of tariffs will ultimately harm the U.S. economy by raising consumer prices, compared to 45% who believe they will protect American industries.

• Tax Reform: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, the administration's landmark legislative achievement, remains more unpopular than popular. Just 40% of Americans approve of the law, with a majority (52%) believing it disproportionately benefits corporations and the wealthy rather than the middle class.

• Healthcare: The administration’s continued efforts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act (ACA) remain a political liability. The poll finds that 55% of Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans on the issue of healthcare, making it a potent issue for the opposition.

Putting It in Context: A Historical View

Presidential approval is a key metric for measuring political capital and the ability to govern effectively. From a historical perspective, President Trump's numbers are an anomaly.

• Compared to Predecessors: At similar points in their first terms, both Barack Obama and George W. Bush enjoyed approval ratings well above 50%. While Bill Clinton's ratings were sometimes closer to Trump's, he did not face the same sustained level of "strong disapproval."

• The Vanishing Honeymoon: Most presidents experience a "honeymoon" period of higher approval immediately following their election. President Trump's ratings, however, have been consistently below 50% for nearly his entire tenure, a first in the history of modern polling.

The Bottom Line: Implications for Markets and Policy

Low and eroding public approval has tangible consequences that extend from Capitol Hill to Wall Street. It signals a period of heightened political risk and potential gridlock.

What It Means

• Legislative Paralysis: A president with low approval ratings has less leverage to pressure wavering members of his own party in Congress, let alone win over members of the opposition. This makes it significantly harder to pass contentious legislation on major issues like infrastructure, immigration, or a second round of tax cuts.

• Midterm Election Risk: These poll numbers are a flashing red light for the Republican party ahead of the midterm elections. Historically, the president's party loses a significant number of House seats when his approval is below 50%. The current data, especially the intensity gap, suggests a potential "wave" election favoring Democrats.

• Market and Business Uncertainty: While equity markets have often decoupled from political noise, sustained political weakness can hinder the passage of pro-growth policies and create uncertainty around international trade negotiations. Business leaders planning long-term capital investments watch for signs of political stability, which these numbers do not provide.

What to Watch

• Economic Indicators: The key question is whether a strong economy, with low unemployment and nascent wage growth, can eventually boost the president's standing, or if voter opinions have become firmly entrenched regardless of economic performance.

• Geopolitical Events: Unforeseen international crises often provide a "rally 'round the flag" effect that can temporarily boost a president's approval. How the administration handles the next major global event will be a critical test.

• Republican Cohesion: Monitor whether the softening support among key demographics begins to create public fractures in Republican unity on Capitol Hill, particularly as incumbents in swing districts face increasing pressure ahead of the midterms.