Trump says India won't buy Russian oil anymore. Moscow insists India hasn't said that

NEW DELHI/MOSCOW – A major U.S.-India trade deal, hailed by President Donald Trump as a breakthrough that would see New Delhi halt all Russian oil purchases, has been thrown into question by a firm rebuttal from Moscow and a conspicuous silence from India on the energy component of the agreement. The conflicting statements have created a cloud of uncertainty over a key aspect of global energy flows and highlight the delicate geopolitical balancing act India is performing between its Western and Russian partners.

While Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has confirmed a trade agreement with the United States, his government has yet to corroborate Trump's claim of a commitment to end Russian oil imports, an assertion the Kremlin says it has not heard from its Indian counterparts.

Trump Declares Landmark Shift in India's Oil Policy

The diplomatic stir began Monday with a post on Truth Social from President Donald Trump, who announced that a comprehensive trade agreement had been reached following a call with Prime Minister Modi.

According to Trump, the conversation covered a wide range of topics, including a resolution to the war in Ukraine and a significant realignment of India's energy sourcing. "We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine," Trump stated. "He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela."

As part of the deal, Trump said the U.S. would reduce its main tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. Crucially, this would also involve the removal of an additional 25% penalty tariff Washington had imposed last summer specifically to retaliate against New Delhi's continued and substantial purchases of Russian crude oil.

Kremlin Expresses Surprise, Reaffirms Partnership

Moscow was quick to counter the U.S. president's announcement. On Tuesday, the Kremlin signaled that it had received no such communication from New Delhi regarding a halt to oil shipments.

"We haven't heard any statements from Delhi on this matter yet," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to the RIA Novosti news agency.

Peskov was careful to frame Russia's position as respectful of bilateral U.S.-Indian relations but underscored the primacy of its own ties with New Delhi. "We attach no less importance to the development of an advanced strategic partnership between Russia and India," he said. "This is the most important thing for us, and we intend to further develop our bilateral relations with Delhi."

Adding to the skepticism, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a key figure in its energy policy, downplayed the impact of any potential loss of Indian business. "We're only seeing public statements. We'll see how the situation develops," Novak said. "But overall, our energy resource is in demand... Supply will always find demand, because the balance is maintained."

New Delhi Confirms Trade Deal, Remains Silent on Oil

For his part, Prime Minister Modi acknowledged the trade breakthrough but omitted any mention of the sensitive oil issue. In a post on the social media platform X on Monday, Modi celebrated the economic aspects of the agreement.

"Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%," he posted, confirming the core trade component announced by Trump. The post, however, made no reference to Russia, oil imports, or any commitment to alter its energy procurement strategy. This pointed silence has left markets and diplomats to parse the true scope of the U.S.-India accord.

Analysts Question Feasibility of a Complete Halt

The notion that India would completely and publicly abandon Russian oil is being met with significant skepticism from geopolitical analysts, who point to India's long-standing policy of strategic autonomy and its deep-rooted relationship with Moscow.

India became one of the largest buyers of seaborne Russian crude after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, taking advantage of steep discounts as Western nations imposed sanctions. While Washington's punitive 25% tariff did appear to curb the volume of these purchases, a total cessation is seen as a step too far for New Delhi.

• Explicit Commitments Unlikely: Evan A. Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued that an open declaration against Russian oil is improbable. "I have a hard time believing the government of India will make any Russian oil-related commitment explicit," he said in an analysis.

• Historical and Defense Ties: Feigenbaum noted that India's relationship with Russia is not one it can easily discard. "India has deep historical and sentimental ties to Russia that it will not simply ditch under American pressure," he explained, adding that Modi "can ill afford to humiliate one of India's most important defense partners."

• Domestic Politics and Autonomy: The decision also has a domestic political dimension. "Maintaining the symbolic hedge that it can purchase Russian oil if it so chooses speaks both to Indian foreign policy autonomy and to its ability to resist American coercion, both of which are important factors in India's domestic politics," Feigenbaum concluded.

The Bottom Line: A Geopolitical Tightrope

The situation underscores the complex diplomatic tightrope India continues to walk. New Delhi is keen to solidify its rapprochement with the United States after months of trade tensions but is equally reluctant to alienate a time-tested strategic ally in Russia.

Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, described it as a quintessential "balancing act."

• The Russia Question: "For India, the Russia question remains," Aamer said in emailed comments. He noted that while India has been incrementally adjusting its energy imports, a complete break is not on the cards.

• Navigating Crucial Relationships: "Even though it has and will change its oil import structure away from Russia, India would still want to keep relations steady. It will be a balancing act for sure as India navigates these two crucial relationships simultaneously," he added.

What to Watch

The discrepancy between Washington's announcement and Moscow's denial places the onus squarely on New Delhi to clarify its position. The global energy market and foreign ministries will be watching for the next move.

• Official Indian Statement: The world awaits a formal clarification from India's Ministry of External Affairs or Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Any statement—or continued silence—will be interpreted as a significant policy signal.

• Oil Market Data: The ultimate proof will be in the trade data. Oil traders and analysts will closely monitor Indian import volumes and shipping manifests in the coming months for any tangible shift away from Russian crude and toward U.S. or other sources.

• U.S. Follow-Up: How the Trump administration responds to the lack of confirmation will be telling. Observers will look for further details on the alleged agreement or signs of renewed pressure on New Delhi to make its commitment public.