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U.S. Weighs Green Light for Oil Production in Venezuela, Pushing for $100 Billion Overhaul

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration is poised to dramatically escalate the reopening of Venezuela's battered oil sector, with plans to issue a general license as soon as this week that would permit U.S. companies to resume oil and gas production, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.

The move would represent a monumental step in the White House's strategy to rapidly stabilize and rebuild the South American nation's economy following the stunning U.S. capture of former President Nicolás Maduro on January 3.

This potential green light for "upstream" activity follows a flurry of policy shifts from both Washington and Caracas aimed at attracting an estimated $100 billion in private capital needed to resurrect a fallen energy titan.

• The Bottom Line: The U.S. Treasury Department is preparing to authorize U.S. firms to engage in the exploration and production of crude oil in Venezuela. This would unlock the final, most crucial piece of the energy supply chain after sanctions were eased on downstream activities last week.

Driving the News

The White House is actively coordinating the policy, signaling a top-down directive to fast-track investment.

"The President's team is working around the clock to ensure oil companies are able to make investments in Venezuela's oil infrastructure. Stay tuned," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement Tuesday, confirming the administration's focus. Bloomberg first reported the development.

This anticipated license builds directly on a directive issued last week by the Treasury Department.

• Step-by-Step Easing: That initial license allowed U.S. companies to resume buying, selling, transporting, and refining Venezuelan crude. However, it explicitly excluded upstream production, the very source of the oil, leaving a critical gap that the new license aims to fill.

A New Era in Caracas

The policy blitz from Washington is a direct consequence of the new geopolitical reality in Venezuela. The removal of the Maduro regime, which presided over the nationalization of foreign assets and the collapse of the state oil company, PDVSA, has created a political opening for the U.S. and its allies.

In a crucial parallel move, Venezuela’s new government has moved swiftly to dismantle the legal framework that previously deterred foreign investment.

• Caracas's Olive Branch: The Venezuelan government last week passed comprehensive reforms to its hydrocarbon laws. The changes are designed to ease the state's tight control over the industry and grant significantly more operational and financial autonomy to private joint-venture partners.

The Industry's Cautious Calculus

Despite the coordinated push, the response from the oil industry—the ultimate source of the needed capital and expertise—has been decidedly mixed, reflecting deep-seated fears and divergent strategic interests.

The industry's supermajors, scarred by a history of expropriation, remain the most cautious.

• Twice Bitten, Thrice Shy: ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods delivered a blunt assessment to President Trump during a Jan. 9 White House meeting, calling Venezuela "uninvestable" under its current system. The comment carries the weight of history, as Exxon has had its assets seized twice by the Venezuelan government, making contract sanctity and legal protections a paramount concern.

Chevron, however, stands as a notable exception. As the only U.S. producer with a continuous, albeit limited, presence in the country, it is uniquely positioned to act quickly.

• Ready to Ramp: CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC last week that with the necessary U.S. approvals, Chevron could increase its current Venezuelan output by 50% within 18 to 24 months. This would boost its production from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to around 375,000 bpd, a significant and immediate injection of supply.

A third group, composed of more nimble and risk-tolerant players, appears most eager to enter the fray.

• The Wildcatter's Gamble: Private wildcatters and smaller, independent oil companies have reportedly shown greater enthusiasm for the opportunity. These firms often have a higher risk appetite and see a ground-floor opening to secure access to world-class reserves that are typically controlled by national oil companies or supermajors.

The Road Ahead: Rebuilding a Titan

The scale of the challenge is difficult to overstate. Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, sits atop the world's largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels.

Yet its energy industry is in ruins.

• A Fallen Giant: Decades of corruption, mismanagement, and, more recently, crippling U.S. sanctions have caused production to plummet from a peak of over 3 million bpd in the late 1990s to a fraction of that today. Its infrastructure—from wells and pipelines to upgraders and export terminals—is in an advanced state of decay.

President Trump’s call for a $100 billion investment is not hyperbole; it is a reflection of the colossal capital infusion that industry analysts believe is required to restore Venezuela's production capacity.

What to Watch

1. The License Details: The immediate focus is on the official announcement from the Treasury Department. The specific terms and conditions of the general license will be scrutinized by corporate legal teams to assess the level of authorization and any remaining restrictions.

2. Investment Commitments: Once the license is issued, all eyes will be on which companies make the first move. Chevron is expected to announce an expansion of its activities quickly. Announcements from independent producers could follow, while supermajors like Exxon may wait for more concrete legal and political assurances from Caracas.

3. Production Impact: While Chevron can provide a near-term boost, a full-scale recovery of Venezuela’s oil output is a long-term project. A return to 1.5-2.0 million bpd could take several years and hinges on sustained investment and political stability. The success of this ambitious U.S.-led initiative will ultimately depend on whether the promise of vast rewards can finally outweigh the perception of profound risk.