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Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have turned to Russia. Now the US wants to engage

WASHINGTON D.C. – A strategic recalibration is underway in Washington as the United States grapples with a rapidly deteriorating security landscape in Africa's Sahel region. Following a series of military coups that saw Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger pivot sharply towards Russia, the U.S. is now exploring avenues for re-engagement, driven by the urgent fear that vast, ungoverned territories are becoming fertile ground for global jihadist organizations.

The shift marks a significant moment in the great-power competition playing out across Africa. After being sidelined by new military juntas hostile to Western influence, U.S. policymakers are confronting a complex dilemma: how to uphold democratic principles without ceding a strategically vital region to Russian influence and terrorist expansion.

The Sahel's Security Collapse

The core of the crisis lies in the inability of the central governments in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey to control their own countries. Despite the presence of Russian mercenaries, violent extremist groups affiliated with both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State continue to expand their operations.

This loss of territorial control is no longer just a local or regional problem. For Washington, it represents a looming national security threat. The primary concern, articulated by officials in the State Department and the Pentagon, is the potential for these areas to become "safe havens" where jihadist groups can consolidate, train, and plan external attacks.

• Humanitarian Toll: While the geopolitical maneuvering dominates headlines, the human cost is catastrophic. The conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions, with local populations bearing the brunt of the violence from all sides.

• Strategic Vacuum: The forced withdrawal of French and other European forces, followed by the recent U.S. withdrawal from Air Base 101 in Niger, created a security vacuum that Russian operatives and extremist groups have both rushed to fill.

A Cascade of Coups and a Russian Pivot

The current situation is the result of a dramatic geopolitical realignment over the past four years. Public frustration with government corruption and the failure to contain the jihadist insurgency fueled popular support for military takeovers.

Each new junta followed a similar playbook: severing long-standing military ties with France, condemning Western "neocolonialism," and embracing Russia as a new security partner.

The New "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES)

In September 2023, the military governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger formalized their relationship by creating the Alliance of Sahel States. This mutual defense pact solidifies their break from the West and aligns their security and foreign policies.

The AES functions as a political and military bloc, vowing that an attack on one member is an attack on all. This move has effectively redrawn the geopolitical map of West Africa, creating a contiguous belt of Russian-aligned territory stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea's periphery.

The U.S. Strategic Conundrum

Washington's response has been constrained by its own laws, which restrict providing security assistance to governments that have come to power through military coups. This has left the U.S. with limited leverage and few partners on the ground.

Now, a pragmatic reassessment is forcing officials to weigh counter-terrorism imperatives against pro-democracy policies.

• The Sanctions Dilemma: Economic sanctions and aid suspensions, intended to pressure the juntas, have had little effect on their political calculations but have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis for civilians.

• Counter-Terrorism vs. Counter-Influence: The U.S. is fighting a two-front battle. It needs to degrade the capabilities of extremist groups while simultaneously countering the strategic gains made by Russia's Africa Corps, the successor to the Wagner Group.

• Loss of Intelligence: The U.S. withdrawal from Niger was a significant blow, shutting down a critical hub for drone surveillance and intelligence gathering across the entire Sahel. Re-engaging is partly an effort to find new ways to restore this lost visibility.

Russia's Playbook: Security for Sovereignty

Russia has successfully positioned itself as the partner of choice for the Sahel's isolated juntas. Its offer is simple and direct, unencumbered by the human rights and governance conditions attached to Western aid.

• Regime Security: The primary service offered by Russia's Africa Corps is not broad counter-insurgency, but rather regime protection. Mercenaries guard key leaders and strategic sites, ensuring the juntas remain in power. This has proven more effective at preventing further coups than at defeating jihadists in the countryside.

• Resource Extraction: In exchange for security, Russia is believed to be gaining preferential access to the region's significant natural resources, including gold in Mali and potentially uranium in Niger. These deals provide an off-budget way for the juntas to fund their operations and for Moscow to finance its own strategic objectives.

• Disinformation Campaigns: Russia's engagement is heavily supported by sophisticated disinformation campaigns that amplify anti-Western sentiment and portray Moscow as a liberator from colonial influence.

The Way Forward: A Pragmatic Re-engagement

Faced with a stark choice between principled isolation and pragmatic engagement, the U.S. appears to be choosing the latter. The goal is not to formally recognize or endorse the military governments, but to open lines of communication and find areas of mutual interest—chiefly, preventing the Sahel from becoming a global launchpad for terror.

High-level diplomatic talks are reportedly exploring what a new relationship could look like. This may involve finding legal workarounds to provide intelligence support or humanitarian aid that does not directly benefit the juntas.

The ultimate challenge for the U.S. is to craft a policy that can contain the immediate security threat without abandoning its long-term commitment to democratic governance. As Russia consolidates its influence and jihadist groups continue their advance, the window for effective action is closing fast. The decisions made in Washington in the coming months will have profound implications for the security of Africa and beyond.